Note: Early in the pandemic up through this post of May 11, 2020 E. D. Hovee posted weekly updates of current COVID mortality and job loss data. This post represent the most recent and last of five weekly updates.
This is an update to last week’s mortality data — now extended through the week of May 9/10. Updated mortality rates were posted with this blog May 11. U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) data is posted as of May 14 — but for the week ended May 9 — allowing for a more complete complete review.
We are now 8 weeks into the current economic crisis with this data review starting for the week ending March 21 with the initial surge of unemployment claims. This may be the last weekly posting of the unemployment/mortality comparison.
We have run out of space for the week-by-week graph comparisons. More substantively, blog posts will now turn to address opportunities and challenges associated with the business of re-opening America’s economy while mitigating mortality risk. As you have questions or suggestions, please email me at ehovee@edhovee.com.
New Jobless Claims Nationally
This is now the 8th straight week of continued massive counts of unemployment claims filed nationally — with another nearly 3.0 million claims (seasonally adjusted) filed the week ending May 9, 2020. Over these eight weeks, cumulative filings of initial unemployment claims as tallied by DOL now are approaching a cumulative total of 36.5 million.
Starting at over 3 million claims the week ending March 21, new filings doubled to the 6-7 million range each of the following two weeks, then eased off somewhat to the 5+ million level the week ending April 11, then to 4.5 million the following week, then to 3.9 million, declining further to 3.2 million new claims, and then to just under 3.0 million for for the most recent week ending May 9.
The analysis with this week’s posting again includes a comparison with continued unemployment claims. This reflects adjustments during the 2nd week after initial filing when counts are pared to continued claims eligible for unemployment insurance payments, as well as for persons finding re-employment. As these adjustments lag behind by one week, the number of continued claims nationally (as of the week ending May 2) was 22.8 million.
STATE-BY-STATE JOBLESS REVIEW
As in prior weeks, this update includes a comparison of experience for the 50 states plus two territories and the District of Columbia (DC) for the weekly unemployment periods ending March 21, March 28, April 4, April 11, April 18, April 25, May 2 and now May 9. Data is shown as a % of base pre-recession employment levels. Note: State-level DOL data is only available on a basis that is not seasonally adjusted.
Ten states now have cumulative 8-week initial unemployment filings that exceed 30% of their pre-recession covered job base — again led this most recent week by Georgia but at the extraordinary rate of 42% — followed by Kentucky, Connecticut, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Washington, Michigan, Nevada, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania. Nationally, claims average out to a 23% share of pre-recession employment.
Eight of the top 10 jobless states remain in the same relative position as was the case during the preceding week - with two exceptions. In one week, Connecticut leaped up from the group of states in the bottom one-third of jobless rates to the #3 highest rate. Unemployment claims went from a cumulative total of 18% joblessness to 36% based on filings of this most recent week. Reasons for this situation are not entirely clear. Also noted is that Washington state went from the 9th to 6th highest jobless claims rate based on a substantial number of new claims for this most recent week ending May 9.
The 10 states (plus DC) with the lowest unemployment rates are the same as noted for the prior week, though there have been some minor changes in rankings. Texas his improved its already low jobless claims ranking as has the District of Columbia (DC).
While the pace of unemployment filings slowed once again in the week ending May 9 for most states, there were seven states for which filings increased as compared to the prior week ending May 2. Those with more filings are Georgia, Connecticut, Washington, Florida, New York, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. This is a grouping for which there appears to be no clear consistency of geographic pattern.
CONTINUED UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
With seven weeks of data now in hand, it is now more useful to review the experience of continued unemployment claims (for those determined to be covered by unemployment insurance and not yet re-employed). This appears to be a still somewhat volatile metric, depending in part on where various states stand in clearing their backlog of claims.
With continued claims lagging one week behind initial filings, the total number of insured unemployed for the nation totals 22.8 million (on a seasonally adjusted basis) for the week ending May 2 — up by just over 450,000 from the prior week. This equates to 15.7% of pre-recession covered employment.
State-by-state data is reported on a seasonally unadjusted basis. The pattern of states with the highest rates of continued unemployment for those insured is somewhat different than for states with the highest rates of initial filings. The #1 state for the week ending May 2 is Oregon with continued claims representing 26% of the pre-recession covered employment base.
The other nine places in the top 10 are Nevada, Washington, Michigan, Mississippi, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, Puerto Rico and Vermont. This reflects a combination of northeastern and western states together with outliers of Michigan, Mississippi and Puerto Rico.
The top 10 listing experienced one major change from May 2 to the week ending May 9. California went from #1 position with the highest continued claims rate to #18 as its continued claims dropped from 4.8 million to 2.9 million in one week.
Of this top 10 grouping, five are also in the top 10 with respect to initial filings. The outliers that rank higher with respect to jobless insured versus all claims are Oregon, Mississippi, New York, Puerto Rico and Vermont.
By comparison, seven of the 10 states with the lowest initial filings are also the states with the lowest rates of continued claims as a proportion of total covered employment. Three states — Idaho, Kansas and Montana rank higher in terms of initial unemployment filings than with continued claimant rates.
STATE-BY STATE MORTALITY REVIEW
Through the weekend of May 9/10, an estimated 79,320 COVID-19 deaths represent a less than a 3% add-on to the 2.8-2.9 million deaths (from all sources) typically occurring across the U.S. With 11,575 new deaths, the latest week’s mortality is the lowest it has been since the week ending April 4. Barring a resurgence, it appears the nation has come across and is now dropping down the backside of the COVID mortality curve.
This blog post has focused on providing an update of cumulative deaths per million residents for each state. As with prior weeks, mortality data is from the New York Times (NYT) daily log (which was apparently bumped up the prior week ending May 2 to include some New York deaths for which COVID-19 is now viewed as the the presumed but not definitive cause of death).
Our composite data set starts with COVID deaths up to March 29, then proceeds with added deaths for each of the six following weeks to achieve cumulative totals as of the week ending May 9/10. (Note: Detailed counts with the New York Times listing can vary over the course of a 24-hour period as counts are regularly updated and the numbers used by this blog reflect the time of day at which the data is pulled).
As illustrated by the following graph, the U.S. COVID mortality rate as of this most recent week is now at just under 240 deaths per million U.S. residents. There are 10 states plus the District of Columbia that are above the national average rate — led by New York at a figure approaching 1,380 deaths per million. There were only 2,215 COVID deaths recorded for New York state during this most recent week, less than half the average experienced across the five earlier weeks (since the week ending March 29).
There continues to be substantial variation between the state with the highest mortality rate (New York at 1,380 deaths per million population) — more than 125 times the state with the lowest mortality to date (for Alaska at less than 11 deaths per million residents).
There are 10 states plus the District of Columbia (DC) with COVID mortality rates that exceed the national average. This is a group that remains unchanged over the last week — albeit with DC now moving ahead of Michigan in terms of death rate per million residents. Of the 11 states, eight are situated in the mid-Atlantic to New England regions of the U.S. The anomalies are Louisiana, Michigan and Illinois.
Of these 11 geographies, there were only three for which this most recent week was their highest mortality week to date — Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. The other eight states have dropped down below prior mortality rates — some substantially so.
STATES WITH BELOW AVERAGE MORTALITY
As suggested by this wide spread in mortality, a better view of the experience for states with mortality below the national average is presented by the following more detailed graph covering 40 states and Puerto Rico. All are below the national average cumulative mortality toll of just under 240 deaths per million residents nationwide as of May 9/10.
There are eight states with death rates in the range of 100-240 per million, another 17 with rates of 50-100, and 15 plus Puerto Rico still in the lowest range of less than 50 COVID deaths per million in-state residents.
The week ending May 9 represented a peak weekly mortality rate for 14 states — down from 19 the previous week. Of these 14 states, 11 have below average mortality as compared with the entire nation.
States in the 100-240 deaths per million range (below the U.S. average) but experiencing this last week as their peak mortality period to date are Mississippi and Minnesota. In the 50-100 mortality range are New Hampshire, Iowa, Missouri, Alabama, Florida and Arizona at what are peaking rates.
Of the 15 states plus Puerto Rico that have mortality rates of under 50 deaths per million residents, four experienced peak mortality for this most recent week — North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Utah. Despite low overall mortality, these states evidence hot spot activity important to monitor.
This leaves 28 states plus Puerto Rico as double winners (up from 15 the prior week ) — experiencing overall average low mortality and no new peaking this last week. At present, these appear to offer the clearest cases to date for start or continuation of business re-opening.
SUMMARY NOTES
As described in more detail for the blog posting with the prior week ending May 2, it continues to appear that COVID-related mortality rates have leveled off and are now starting a downward trajectory. At the same time, unemployment claims — while still high from a historical perspective — are continuing to decline on a week-to-week basis.
Considerable variations are evident across the states — in terms of joblessness and even more so with COVID-19 related deaths. While there will undoubtedly be state- and local-level successes and failures along the way, each state and region of the country now is in position to tailor jurisdiction-specific approaches reflecting greater understanding of local needs and opportunities.
Re-opening can be expected to continue as an iterative process — speeding up or slowing the pace based on real-time experience monitoring with clearly articulated employment and mortality metrics.
