In the 1987 Disney movie (Honey, I Shrunk the Kids) a struggling inventor shrinks the size of his kids and those of his neighbor to one-quarter (1/4) inch tall. This blog post zeroes in on another type of kid shrinkage — not of the physical but of the numerical variety.
A Shrinking School Age Population
Over the last two decades (since 2000), U.S. population has increased by more than 51 million — an 18% increase. By comparison, the population of primary and secondary school age children ages 5-18 has increased by fewer than 1 million — less than a 2% increase over this same time period (from 2000-22).
School age population actually peaked at less than 58.5 million in 2010 — and has remained relatively flat since. This has occurred as parents wait longer and have fewer children than in the past.
SHRINKING OR GROWING THE KIDS?
It should be remembered that in the movie, the mad inventor’s machine had at least the theoretical ability either to shrink or increase the targeted objects. So while current trends point toward more school age shrinkage, it is conceivable (albeit less likely) that the U.S. faces the opposite outcome — one of growing the kids — in the years just ahead.
Shrink or grow? It all depends on migration.
In its most recent detailed forecast of nation-wide population growth, the U.S. Census Bureau offers not one but four possible scenarios for domestic population growth. The only significant difference between the four scenarios is the question of how much net in-migration will occur:
What the Census Bureau terms as the main scenario forecasts total U.S. population increasing by about 2.2 million persons per year from 2022-40. School age population will increase at a more modest pace — up by an average of 122,000 per year (or by a cumulative 2.2 million over 18 years).
With a high immigration scenario, total U.S. population increases at a substantially more rapid pace averaging 3.4 added Americans per year — with school age population up by over 370,000 annually (6.7 million over 20 years).
With what the Census Bureau terms as a low immigration scenario, total U.S. population increases by less than 1.5 million per year with school age population declining by 45,000 per year — a net loss of 810,000 primary and secondary students within 18 years.
And with a zero immigration scenario, U.S. population declines by about 100,000 per year with school age population dropping by close to 380,000 per year — a net loss of 6.9 million primary and secondary school students from 2022-40. In effect, the number of 5-18 age youth would drop by nearly 12% over this 18-year time horizon.
Outomes of these forecast alternatives as compared with historical experience are graphically illustrated below.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and E. D. Hovee. Population forecast by age and immigration scenarios is from the Census document, Projected Population Size and Annual Total Population Change for the United States by Alternative Immigration Scenario: 2017 to 2060 (NP2017-A). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Washington, DC. Release Date October 24,2019. Annual and historical U.S. population by age is also per Census data. Note that the actual data series (shown with black line) overlaps with forecast years for the period 2017-22 (as indicated with the orange, green, blue and purple lines).
Summary Observations
Four principal observations emerge from this review of recent trends and forecast for primary and secondary school age children:
Due to reduced childbearing and even with some level of foreign in-migration, the population of children age 5-18 across the U.S. has peaked and is likely to remain relatively flat through at least 2040.
Growing the school age populations is potentially yet achievable nationally, but only with substantial levels of net in-migration from non-domestic sources into the U.S.
Communities, metro regions and states that maintain or increase their school age populations will need to do so from some combination of domestic and/or foreign in-migration and/or return to higher levels of fertility. Others are likely to see declining enrollments including potentially reduced need for added school facilities in the years ahead — if not already.
Broader workforce and housing effects of a shrinking school age population can be expected as what is now a youthful cohort ages into adulthood — starting in the 2030s and extending well beyond.
In short, the prospect of shrinking the kids can be expected to affect us all — in ways both good and ill — for decades to come.
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